Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
News Time
When the faucet began, there were several indicators, including billions of dollars worth of projects, major music and sports events, the G20 Summit. For those who thought this year was the year of success for Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia is opening its doors to the world. The atmosphere was so great that Saudi crown prince’s prediction in 2016 seemed to be justified. In which he said that by 2020 Saudi Arabia’s economy will be able to run without oil. But then the third month of the year came with such a shock that now the dream of the Saudi crown prince not only appears to be shattered, but his seemingly strong grip on power is loosening.
Oil prices war with Saudi Arabia, Russia, and internally arrest of senior members of the Saudi royal family has begun. Saudi crown prince who despite the accusations of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Yemen war and human rights abuses, appeared to have escaped all crises with the help of US President Trump and his administration, but he Once again, the internal and external problems have subsided.
Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been seeking to strengthen control of the Saudi state since his father became king in 2015. And other princes involved in the race for power are also being ousted and deposed. Mohammed bin Salman became the first deputy Crown Prince to take control of the Defense Ministry and seek control of the Saudi army and intelligence, later Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef removed him to become the guardian of the kingdom and thus the control of the royal palace was completely in his hands.
Former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif who was removed as Crown Prince. Following the completion of 5 years of King Salman’s reign, it is reported that Prince Mohammed bin Salman is preparing to become king before the G20 summit in Saudi Arabia in November this year. In the same attempt, Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrested his cousin and brother of King Salman Ahmed bin Abdulaziz in the first week of March; In addition, the former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif has also been detained. The two princes are the most senior members of the royal family after King Salman. In addition to this, Prince Naif Bin Ahmad bin Abdulaziz, son of Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the former Crown Prince’s half brother Nawaf, has been arrested. There have been reports of arrests of intelligence and military officers besides the princes, but they could not be confirmed.
Naif bin Ahmad bin Abdulaziz, son of Prince Ahmad bin Abdulaziz, is in the highest position among the arrested. He is the head of the Saudi Land Forces Intelligence and Security Authority. After the arrest of 20 princes, the rest of the royal family was sent a message on Twitter in support of Prince Mohammed bin Salman. And use the hashtag for that. The hashtag was a trend on the occasion of arrests in Saudi Arabia.
Royal Family:
Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accused the arrested princes of being in touch with foreign powers, including the United States, to seize power. According to information received to Saudi media by the media, King Salman signed the arrest order. King Salman, who is suffering from dementia and his health news, is public, probably because after these arrests, photographs of diplomats from various countries and receiving diplomatic diplomas were released, so that rumors about King Salman were released could be eliminated. One of the reasons for the arrest of Prince Ahmad bin Abdulaziz and other princes is said to be that the senior princes wanted to change the list of successors. As the son of Saud bin Abdulaziz, Ahmad bin Abdulaziz is a strong candidate for the throne and is also a member of senior royalty, security agencies and Western powers. Ahmad bin Abdulaziz opposed Muhammad bin Salman as guardian of pledge in 2017 and he is the most senior member of the Saudi royal family’s allegiance to Mohammed bin Salman in 3 members. Mohammed bin Nayef has been detained after being removed from the position of guardian.
In November 2018, Ahmed bin Abdulaziz’s return from the UK was almost restricted and he was banned from traveling abroad. Because of their limited movement and supervision for a long time, their chances of rebellion are very rare, that is why many people are not ready to believe the allegations of rebellion this time. There are 2 reasons for recent arrests that seem more plausible and rational. The first of these is stated because Ahmad bin Abdulaziz was tapping to take over the position of head of the Baiat Council, remember that the king’s successor is the one who decides in the council of allegiance.
King Salman used this council to make Mohammed bin Salman a guardian after taking over the kingdom. And 31 of the 34 members of the Baiat Council approved the removal of Mohammed bin Naif and made Mohammed bin Salman a guardian. It is now believed that Ahmad bin Abdulaziz could block the path of Mohammed bin Salman by becoming the head of the Baiat Council, because if anything happens to King Salman, the council of allegiance has to ratify the new king. Another reason is that Mohammed bin Salman is desperate to take over the throne and is thinking of taking the throne before November. And at the G20 summit in November, he wants to get a confirmation of world powers. Mohammed bin Salman will need the separation of the throne from the king’s malady and the endorsement of the Council of Allegiance to come to power, and if Muhammad bin Salman, the senior prince in the Bait Council, ratifies, he will not face much resistance from within the family.
According to details about the arrest of Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, Ahmad bin Abdulaziz was called to a meeting at the royal palace on Friday. Where they tried to get support for Mohammed bin Salman’s plan. When denied by them, they were arrested from the royal palace. Mohammed bin Naif was also arrested from his home in the desert for failing to support the project. Current Interior Minister Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Naif was also arrested but released after a brief investigation and now they have questions about how they will react to the arrest of their two cousins. Mohammed bin Nayef is the uncle of the current interior minister and the interior minister’s father, Saud bins Abdulaziz, is the then governor of the eastern province. The senior princes arrested so far in Saudi Arabia include 75-year-old Muhammad bin Saad bin Abdulaziz, son of King Salman’s late brother, who is also a member of the Bait Council.
In addition to the internal battles, Mohammed bin Salman has also been battling oil prices overseas. The fight has caused oil prices to drop in the global market. Saudi Arabia waged this fight after the OPEC meeting in Geneva. The meeting was in fact called for a reduction in oil production so that the demand for oil in the global economy was slowed down by the Coronavirus. China’s largest buyer of oil was sending oil tankers back because of the Coronavirus. At this meeting, Russia opposed the proposal to cut production and no agreement could be reached. On this, Saudi Arabia announced increased oil production and reduced oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s decision on oil production is a major risk to the country’s economy. Saudi Arabia’s decision has brought oil prices to the lowest levels since 1991.
Saudi Arabia announces increase of one million barrels a day on Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase oil production and now it plans to increase production to 5 million barrels a day. By making this decision, Saudi Arabia has tried to convince the world that it works as a shock observer in the supply of oil, but how can the market be without this shock observer? The second message was that even if the energy market was left to the remarket forces, Gulf countries could cope with this situation and they could sell oil cheaper than US shale oil. Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce its budget by one-third of US medium sized oil companies Apache, Devon and Murphy Oil due to heavy loans because they are unable to compete with the Gulf state-owned oil companies. Russia, too, was ready to cut output but not to the extent that it would benefit US shale oil. Russia is not in a position to increase production and therefore is not ready to compete. The decision will hurt the Gulf countries too and if the price remains at $ 30 a barrel, revenues from the six oil producing countries will decrease by $ 140 billion. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are in a position to bear this loss, but Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman will not be able to afford it.
Saudi Arabia needs $ 83 a barrel to keep the budget deficit at zero. Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserves are $ 490 billion, without the reserves of the economy, the economy can stay because the country is unable to pay its import bill. In the current scenario, Saudi Arabia may need a loan to cover its costs because its costs are higher than its oil revenues. Russia, with which Saudi Arabia has engaged in a price war, has foreign exchange reserves of $ 440 billion, Russia needs oil prices $ 42 a barrel to meet its budget. Russia was angered by US sanctions on its state-owned oil company because of Venezuela’s oil and wanted to harm US shale oil by keeping Saudi Arabia with it. Russia believes that if US oil prices fall below $ 40 a barrel, many US shale companies may close. Russia and Saudi Arabia are no longer in a position to continue the oil price war as both economies cannot afford the war.
Saudi Arabia has played a gamble by increasing oil production and lowering prices. Saudi Arabia is planning to occupy a large part of the global market, but Saudi Arabia’s policy of eliminating its dependence on oil will be curtailed. 80% of Saudi Arabia’s economy relies on oil if this situation continues, future plans will be affected. Because if oil prices rise, revenue will increase and if money goes down, the treasury will be empty. Vision to reduce dependence on oil 2030 is already far behind the targets. Shares of Aramco were offered for sale but initially the market value of Aramco was not expected to be $ 2 trillion. Now, with the fall in oil prices, Aramco’s share price has fallen by 12%.Foreign direct investment targets have not yet been achieved.
Mohammed bin Salman’s policies are like a gambling tactic, the war on oil prices, the arrests of princes to take over the kingdom by November are the new gambling of Mohammed bin Salman. Mohammed bin Salman has played a big role in the trust of US President Trump and his son-in-law, as it is also reported that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has reported the revolt about the princes. Whatever the gamble is on the US president, If Biden comes to Trump in the November election and even wins, his Middle East policy will be completely different.
The US CIA also considers Mohammed bin Nayef an asset in Saudi Arabia, so even if Biden does not become president, the CIA’s president in the White House could force Trump to change policy. In this case, the United States may emerge as a supporter of Muhammad bin Nayef as opposed to Mohammed bin Salman.
